The latest model run from the good folks at Irish Election Stats is out—hot off the tweet machine from @electionstatsie on Feb 13th. The projections in comparison to 2011 (below) is stark with a sharp greening. The massive reduction in Labour seats is widely expected. These stats have Sinn Féin as the second largest party, which is an amazing thing to write down.
I realise that the number of hexagons per colour don't add up to the numbers quoted on the right. The reason is that @electionstatsie produce probabilities for each constituency and I plumped for different candidates making the final seat. In my reckoning, I have given SF 3 seats more than the headline figures from @electionstatsie.